Another week of NBA action kicks off this evening, and we're targeting a pair of point guards to do damage from beyond the arc. On the other front, our NBA player prop picks expect Tatum to have a rough go against a stout L.A. defense.
The new week kicks off with a solid slate of NBA action with seven games on the board for hungry basketball bettors to dig into. That means plenty of value in the NBA player props market.
Today, I highlight one of my favorite prop betting angles as we look to take advantage of the Heat’s propensity to give up the 3-ball, Damian Lillard should let it fly against the Timberwolves, and is Jayson Tatum hitting a bit of an early-season wall?
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Monday, December 12.
Picks made on 12/12/2022 at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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One of the themes of my NBA player prop picks this season will be fading the Miami Heat when it comes to opposing players’ 3-pointers made props. Generally, we will get good value because the Heat are regarded as a good defensive team.
However, because of their defensive style where they tend to collapse on the ball in the interior, they are often left exposed on the perimeter. In fact, only the Rockets and Knicks allow more 3-pointers than the 37.4 threes Miami gives up per game.
That presents us with some value in tonight’s game against the upstart Indiana Pacers and with guard Tyrese Haliburton in particular.
Haliburton’s 3-point total for this matchup is set at 2.5 and even with a little bit of juice, the Over looks like a solid play. He’s having an excellent year shooting the basketball, draining 41% of his 7.1 long-ball attempts per game.
Haliburton is on a real heater right now, hitting nearly 50% (25-for-51) of his shots from downtown over his last seven games. He’s sunk three or more threes six times over that stretch. Plus, in the Pacers’ only other matchup against the Heat this season, Haliburton went 3-for-8 from downtown.
With Haliburton in a groove and an added opportunity to get extra shots from long range up, he looks like a great bet to go Over his 3-pointers made prop.
Tyrese Haliburton Prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-125)
Spoiler alert: Damian Lillard loves shooting threes, and he’ll get plenty of opportunities to do that when the Portland Trail Blazers and the Minnesota Timberwolves match up for the second straight game.
The Trail Blazers won Friday night’s matchup 124-118, with Lillard putting up 36 points despite going just 3-for-11 from 3-point range. But don’t expect Lillard to get trigger shy in this matchup.
For starters, not many players in the NBA attempt more than Lillard’s 10.8 three-pointers per game. Even though he can run hot and cold at times, he is generally good for a handful of makes each game.
Lillard started the season on fire, hitting 40.8% of his attempts from downtown through his first seven games. He hit a bit of a rough patch before suffering a calf strain which cost him seven games, but he has come back with a hot hand. Since his return, Dame has hit 17 of 38 (44.7%) threes in his three games.
Then there is the matchup with the Wolves. Minnesota has one of the best interior defenders in the NBA in Rudy Gobert, but having him on the court with Karl-Anthony Towns has left his team vulnerable on the perimeter. To the point where Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball.
The Timberwolves allow the fourth-most 3-point attempts per contest at 37.3 per game, while also allowing the fourth-worst opponent 3-point percentage (37.4%).
As I said, Dame hit just three threes in Friday’s game, but that feels like the low end of his capabilities regarding this matchup. I’m backing him to go Over 3.5 made threes at a decent price.
Damian Lillard Prop: Over 3.5 made threes (-118)
The Boston Celtics are killing it this season, with their NBA-best 21-6 record highlighted by their epic offense led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. However, the dynamic duo may be hitting a bit of an early-season lull.
That can be expected in a long NBA campaign that hasn’t even hit Christmas Day. It doesn’t help that the Celtics are in the middle of a stretch of games that includes both a string of strong defensive teams and a west coast road trip. The trip continues Monday night in Los Angeles when Boston takes on the Clippers.
L.A. has navigated some early season injuries, and while the team will still be cautious with the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, both superstars are starting to see a ramp up in minutes and that can only help a defense that already is one of the best in the NBA.
The Clippers rank fifth in defensive rating and fourth in opponent effective goal percentage, posing a tough front for Tatum’s 29.5-point total.
Tatum has only hit 30 points once in his last five games, shooting just 40.8% from the floor and averaging just 23.4 points over that stretch. That includes games against solid defensive teams like the Heat, Raptors, and Suns.
He is also coming off a tough shooting night on national television Sunday night against the Warriors where he went just 6-for-21.
Now he faces a Clippers team with a plethora of defenders they can throw at Tatum, leading me to believe he’ll stay Under his point total.
Jayson Tatum Prop: Under 29.5 points (-115)
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